Does Copying Congress's Stock Trades Work? We Tested 4,967 Buys

Watch it play outThe longer you held, the further copying fell behind

Day one: the copied buy and the index start level.

After 90 days the median copied buy trailed by 1.9 points.

After 180 days, by 3.5 points.

After a year, by 8.1 points. Copying lost to the index at every horizon we tested.

Replay

• Better than random, not better than the index. Congress's buys lag the index by less than random stocks bought on the same days, mostly because members favor the mega-caps that led the market. On average, their picks did no better than random ones.
• No filter rescued it. Big trades, spouse trades, fast filers and Senate trades all landed within a few points of the index, and none was consistent across horizons.
• Pelosi is a coin flip too. Of 17 spouse purchases we could price at six months, 6 beat the S&P 500 after the filing date.

Check the claimThree copy-trading claims, tested

ClaimMembers of Congress beat the market, so copying them pays.Tap to checkMythCopied the day after filing, the median buy trailed the S&P 500 at every horizon: 1.9 points at 90 days, 3.5 at 180, 8.1 at a year.Flip backClaimA real-time alert app would fix the problem.Tap to checkMythBuying on the member's own trade date gave −3.6 points at six months, against −3.5 after the filing. Speed doesn't add returns the trades never had.Flip backClaimFollowing only the big trades works.Tap to checkPartly truePurchases of $50,001 or more beat the index by 1.9 points at 90 days, then trailed it by 0.6 points at 180 days, on about 200 trades.Flip back

How we tested it

We used Yield Theory's congressional-trades dataset, which is parsed from House Clerk and Senate eFD filings and keeps the transaction date, filing date, owner and amount range on every row.

• Trades: every disclosed purchase with a stock ticker, transacted from June 6, 2024 to September 22, 2026 and filed by October 2, 2026. We counted a member buying the same ticker on the same day once. That left 4,967 purchases by 82 members across 1,103 tickers.
• Prices: daily closes adjusted for splits and dividends, so both the stock and the index include dividends.
• Two entry points: the close on the transaction date, which is what the member got, and the close on the first trading day after the filing date, which is the earliest a copier could act.
• Benchmark: SPY, an S&P 500 index fund, bought on the same day as each trade.
• Horizons: 30, 90, 180 and 365 calendar days. A trade only counts at a horizon once that much time has passed, so the sample shrinks for longer horizons.

Each purchase was bought twice and measured against SPY

1. Member trades (Day 0) to Trade-date entry (What the member got): Same day
2. Member trades (Day 0) to Filing-date entry (Earliest a copier could act): Median 29 days
3. Trade-date entry (What the member got) to Compare with SPY (30, 90, 180, 365 days)
4. Filing-date entry (Earliest a copier could act) to Compare with SPY (30, 90, 180, 365 days)

"Excess return" below means the stock's return minus SPY's over the same window. If a stock rose 10% while SPY rose 13%, the excess return is −3 points.

Result 1: copied trades trailed the S&P 500

Entry on the first trading day after the filing date.

The median and average tell different stories. The median copied trade lost to the index at every horizon, and it lost by more the longer it was held. The average sits near zero because a handful of big winners offset the many trades that lagged.

The typical copied trade lost more the longer it was held

Median excessAverage excess

−10.0−7.5−5.0−2.52.5 pts0

−0.6 pts+0.4 pts

30 daysMedian excess−0.6 ptsAverage excess+0.4 pts

−1.9 pts+0.2 pts

90 daysMedian excess−1.9 ptsAverage excess+0.2 pts

−3.5 pts−0.5 pts

180 daysMedian excess−3.5 ptsAverage excess−0.5 pts

−8.1 pts+2.1 pts

365 daysMedian excess−8.1 ptsAverage excess+2.1 pts

30 days90 days180 days365 days

That shape matters for anyone copying with real money. If you copied every trade, the winners roughly paid for the losers and you'd have ended up near the index, holding hundreds of positions with more risk and more taxable trades. If you copied a few trades, the odds were that most of yours lagged.

Result 2: the delay wasn't the problem

The most common objection to copying Congress is that filings arrive too late. In this sample the median purchase was disclosed 29 days after the trade, and 26% took longer than 45 days. So we reran everything as if you could have bought alongside the member on the transaction date.

The two columns are nearly identical. Buying with zero delay would not have helped, because the trades didn't beat the market in the first place. A faster tracker or a real-time alert service doesn't fix that.

Zero delay, same result

−10−8−6−4−2030 days90 days180 days365 days−8.1 ptsFiling date−9.3 ptsTrade date30 days−0.6 pts−0.8 pts90 days−1.9 pts−2.0 pts180 days−3.5 pts−3.6 pts365 days−8.1 pts−9.3 pts

Result 3: slightly better than random picks

Trailing the S&P 500 isn't unusual for single stocks. Over this period a few mega-caps drove much of the index's 48% total return, so most individual stocks lagged it. The fairer question is whether members picked better than chance.

To check, we swapped each purchase for a randomly chosen stock from the same pool of 1,103 tickers, bought on the same day, and repeated that 200 times.

Entry on the first trading day after the filing date for both.

At the median, Congress's buys did lag by 1 to 2 points less than random stocks. Most of that comes from what they buy: NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple and Meta were the five most-purchased tickers, the same names that carried the index. On average, though, random picks did as well or better. Members tilt toward big, popular companies, and that's about all the data shows.

Congress lagged by less than random stocks did

Congress's buysRandom stocks, same days

−12−10−8−6−4−20

−1.9 pts−2.9 pts

90 daysCongress's buys−1.9 ptsRandom stocks, same days−2.9 pts

−3.5 pts−5.0 pts

180 daysCongress's buys−3.5 ptsRandom stocks, same days−5.0 pts

−8.1 pts−10.2 pts

365 daysCongress's buys−8.1 ptsRandom stocks, same days−10.2 pts

90 days180 days365 days

Result 4: no filter fixed it

Tracker sites often suggest following only certain trades. We tested the common filters, entered on the day after filing:

Spot the red flag

Only one of these filters beat the S&P 500 at 90 days. Which?

Copied purchases, filteredTrades priced at 90 days

Senate only263Closest to the index, but still 0.3 points behind it at 90 days.Spouse's account1,115Trailed by 2.7 points at 90 days.Filed within 14 days766Fast filers trailed by 1.4 points.$50,001 or more219Beat the index by 1.9 points at 90 days, then trailed it by 0.6 points at 180 days.Member's own account2,469Trailed by 1.7 points.

Tap the line you think is the tell.

Spotted it.Not that line. Big trades were the only filter ahead at 90 days, on about 200 trades. Check how it held up at 180 days before you trust it.

Explain every lineHide the other explanations

The large-trade filter is the only one that beat the index, at 90 days, and its edge disappeared by 180 days on a sample of about 200 trades. Test enough filters and one will look good by chance. A real edge would hold up across horizons.

Weighting each member equally gives the same answer. Among the 48 members with at least five priced purchases, the typical member's average copied trade beat the S&P 500 by 0.1 points over 90 days. Half the members beat it and half didn't.

Individual members: mostly below the index

Prolific traders dominate any copy strategy, so we looked at the members with the most purchases. Six-month results, entered the day after filing:

Tim Moore is the standout, with 68% of 133 copied buys beating the index. Picked out after the fact from dozens of members, one strong record is expected even with no skill involved. His purchases also cluster in time, so they aren't 133 independent tests. Treat it as a reason to look at his filings, not a strategy.

Five of the six busiest buyers trailed the index

Tim Moore+8.5 pts

Marjorie Taylor Greene−0.6 pts

Lisa McClain−1.9 pts

Josh Gottheimer−2.2 pts

Gilbert Cisneros−7.9 pts

Robert Bresnahan−8.7 pts

What about Nancy Pelosi?

"Pelosi tracker" is the most-searched version of this idea. Every Pelosi purchase in our window was reported under her spouse, Paul Pelosi, and they're large: 22 purchases, mostly in the $250,001 to $5,000,000 bands. Many are call options or option exercises rather than share purchases, so the figures below show how the underlying stocks did after each filing, not what the household earned. Our Pelosi portfolio breakdown separates the two.

The one-year figure looks impressive, but it comes from 8 purchases, several of them the same stocks bought the same day (Alphabet, Amazon and NVIDIA in January 2025). At six months, the larger sample, most copied buys lagged. Twenty-two trades in a few mega-cap names can't separate skill from a good run in big tech. The Pelosi trade page lists every filing with its source document.

At six months, most copied Pelosi buys lagged

11 of 19Beat the S&P 500 at 90 daysMedian +1.4 pts

6 of 17Beat it at 180 daysMedian −3.0 pts

5 of 8Beat it at 365 daysMedian +15.2 pts

The funds that automate this have the same problem. Our NANC and KRUZ breakdown shows each congressional-trading ETF beating the S&P 500 over one period and trailing it over another, while charging about 0.72% a year.

Why the trades don't beat the market

The data can't show motive, but it does fit a simple explanation.

• Most trades are routine. 84% of purchases were in the smallest band, $1,001 to $15,000. Many look like portfolio maintenance, reinvestment or adviser-run accounts, not conviction bets.
• Many accounts are managed by someone else. Spouse, joint and dependent accounts made up 39% of purchases, and members often say an adviser makes the trades.
• Ordinary stock picking is hard. Most single stocks trailed the index over this period. A member of Congress choosing well-known companies faces the same odds as anyone else.

84% of purchases were in the smallest band

• 84%$1,001–$15,000
• 16%Larger bands

None of this rules out a well-timed trade. It means the average disclosure carries no signal you can trade on.

Our read

Don't copy congressional trades. Across almost 5,000 purchases, copying gave you roughly the index on average, worse than the index in the typical case, and a lot more positions to manage. Simply buying the S&P 500 was the better strategy, and it's the bar any stock pick has to clear.

Buying the index beat both ways of copying

Copy every trade

• Winners roughly paid for the losers
• Near the index on average
• Hundreds of positions, more taxable trades

Copy a few trades

• Odds were most of yours lagged
• Median trailed by 3.5 pts at six months

Buy the S&P 500

• One position
• The bar any stock pick has to clear

A disclosure is still useful as a prompt. When a member buys a stock, you have a name, a date and a public record. What you don't have is a reason to own it. That takes research the filing can't give you: what the business earns, what it's worth and what has to go right.

Try it yourself

1. Open the recent purchases list and pick one trade.
2. Note the transaction date, filing date and amount range. The disclosure guide explains each field.
3. Open the stock page for the ticker and look at its revenue, margins and cash flow.
4. Write one sentence on why the business could beat the S&P 500 from here. If you can't, the trade isn't telling you anything.

Questions readers ask

Is there a congress trading strategy that beats the market?

Not in this data. We tested chamber, owner, trade size and filing speed, and every filter landed within a few points of the index, with no edge that held across horizons. Earlier academic studies that found an edge mostly used data from before the 2012 STOCK Act.

Would a real-time alert app help?

No. Buying on the member's own transaction date, before anyone could see the trade, gave almost the same result as buying after the filing. Speed doesn't add returns the trades never had.

Are Pelosi's trades worth following?

Her disclosed purchases are large and concentrated in big tech, which did well over this period. At six months, though, only 6 of 17 copied buys beat the S&P 500. The sample is too small to show skill.

Where does the data come from?

Official House Clerk and Senate eFD disclosures, parsed into our congressional-trades dataset, which you can download as CSV or JSON. Each row links to its source filing.

Go deeper with member research

Copying a trade outsources the decision. These show how we make it ourselves:

• Issue 05: NVIDIA Is Building the Credit Market for AI: NVIDIA was Congress's most-bought stock in this sample. This issue looks at how its customers pay for GPUs and where that financing could go wrong.
• Intel's manufacturing option needs a cash-flow bridge: Paul Pelosi bought Intel twice in 2026. This case study shows what Intel's recovery evidence actually said on January 23, 2026.
• The fundamental research course: 40 chapters, from reading a 10-K to writing your own research memo. The first chapter is free.

Limits of this data

• The window, June 2024 to October 2026, was a strong market led by a few mega-caps. Results could differ in a falling market or a broader rally.
• Amount ranges mean we can't weight trades by dollars, so every purchase counts equally.
• We tested purchases of stock tickers only. Options, bonds, funds without tickers and private assets are excluded, and sales are not netted against purchases.
• Prices are daily closes. A copier would pay a little more or less depending on when they traded, plus any trading costs and taxes.
• Members file amendments, and late filings can add trades to past periods. Figures reflect filings available on October 2, 2026.