NVIDIA’s growth has a financing bill
Receivables up 55%. Supply commitments at $279 billion. NVIDIA is doing more to fund the AI buildout. What that means for earnings quality, risk, and the price you pay.
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Every issue, in one place.
Macro analysis, capital-flow breakdowns, and the stock recommendations behind each thesis. Free issues are open to everyone; members unlock the full archive.
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Issue 06: Who keeps the profits from AI's photonics buildout?
A detailed photonics investment study covering five companies, optical architectures, manufacturing yields, reliability, cash conversion and valuation. Includes worked models and the evidence that would strengthen or break the thesis.
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Issue 05: NVIDIA Is Building the Credit Market for AI
NVIDIA has found a way to turn knowledge of its own roadmap into a lower cost of capital for its customers. The result could move AI infrastructure from venture equity into private credit, insurance balance sheets and securitized debt.
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Issue 04: Citadel Bought Time at a 10% Discount
The buyer did not need a better AI forecast. Citadel was paid to provide liquidity when Situational Awareness could no longer finance the path to its own long-term thesis.
Citadel bought the AI fire sale. The seller had run out of time.
A leveraged $16 billion portfolio changed hands at a reported discount above 10%. The AI forecast was not the decisive edge.
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Issue 03: The AI bill is arriving late to earnings
Four hyperscalers invested almost four dollars in first-quarter infrastructure for each dollar of depreciation. The spending can still earn an excellent return, but the next margin test is already visible.
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Issue 02: The AI Capex Shock
Where the next AI infrastructure dollar goes, which bottlenecks can retain pricing power, how the boom is being financed, and what could break first.
Issue 0: Why we follow the money
The thesis behind Yield Theory, and why understanding capital flows beats chasing headlines.
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Historical simulation: Newmont and the gap between a gold rally and shareholder cash
A February 23, 2026 historical cutoff tests whether portfolio simplification and cost control could turn stronger gold economics into cash.
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Historical simulation: Comfort Systems and the scarce capacity behind AI construction
A February 20, 2026 historical cutoff tests whether contractor backlog and cash conversion offered an investable signal before later gains.
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Historical simulation: Lumentum and the economics of faster optical links
A February 6, 2026 reconstruction of Lumentum’s optical recovery, with separate later evidence and an explicit test of whether the signal was early enough.
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Historical simulation: AMD’s server franchise can finance a second AI platform
A February 4, 2026 research note separating AMD’s visible CPU and accelerator progress from the major partnerships that were still unknowable.
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Historical simulation: Lam Research and the economics of harder-to-build memory
A paid research reconstruction using information available January 30, 2026: NAND conversions, manufacturing complexity, cash conversion and the price of waiting. Includes a separate timing audit and post-mortem.
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Historical simulation: GE Vernova and the value of delivering dependable power
A January 29, 2026 historical cutoff examines gas power and grid economics, with a separate audit of why this was already a recognized trade.
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Seagate Historical Simulation: More Terabytes, Better Economics
A January 28, 2026 historical simulation of Seagate's capacity-density thesis, separating known qualifications and financials from an uncertain next phase.
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Historical simulation: Intel’s manufacturing option needs a cash-flow bridge
A January 23, 2026 examination of Intel’s recovery conditions, followed by a separate audit of the later catalysts that could not have been predicted.
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Micron Historical Simulation: The HBM Capacity Trade
A December 18, 2025 historical simulation of Micron's HBM capacity thesis, with a separate audit of timing, valuation and subsequent results.
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Sandisk Historical Simulation: NAND Pricing Meets a Better Product Mix
A December 1, 2025 simulation examining NAND pricing, BiCS8 and enterprise qualification, with an explicit audit of why this was already a late entry.
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