Start here: how Yield Theory approaches research
- Research desk
- Yield Theory Research
- Reviewed
- Evidence
- 0 external references · Method
Yield Theory is an independent research publication for people investing their own money. We study the business behind a stock: how it makes money, what it costs to grow, what could get in the way, and what would have to be true for an idea to work. We do the hard work. You make the call.
What is free
- The research library. Free explainers on mechanisms such as AI capital spending, memory supply and the dollar.
- Stock pages. Company financials pulled from SEC filings.
- The congressional trade tracker. Members of Congress's stock trade disclosures, shown as filed.
- Calculators and the investing glossary. The concepts behind each thesis, with numbers you can change.
- The first chapter of the fundamental research course. "Think like an owner" turns a stock-market story into a business question you can test.
What members get
- Every member issue and the full archive. Each issue covers the business, the numbers and valuation assumptions, the catalysts to watch, and the evidence that would change our view.
- New research throughout the month
- Models, valuations and company comparisons
- The full fundamental research course, with interactive explainers and worked exercises
Membership costs $39 a month or $249 a year. Choose a membership →
Three first reads
- NVIDIA’s growth has a financing bill. Our free sample issue: why NVIDIA's cash flow lagged its profit, and a valuation worksheet you can run yourself.
- The hyperscaler AI capex tracker. 2026 capital spending guidance from Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, company by company, with sources.
- Congressional trades. See what members of Congress have disclosed buying and selling.
How we work
Every issue keeps three things apart: what a company reported, what we think it means, and what nobody can know yet. Material claims link to their sources, starting with filings, earnings releases and government records. Each page shows when it was published and last reviewed. The full standard is on our methodology page.
Members-only research
Members are reading this
Jul 14, 2026
Issue 02: The AI Capex ShockWhere the next AI infrastructure dollar goes, which bottlenecks can retain pricing power, how the boom is being financed, and what could break first.
Sep 22, 2026
Meta jumped 11%. What must happen next to justify the price?A member research report on Meta’s AI rally: Muse, subscription economics, the cash-flow burden, legal costs and the earnings assumptions behind the new price.
The thesis, the numbers behind it, and what would break it. Full access is $39 a month.
Read the full research












