Yield Theory standards
Research methodology & disclosures
Yield Theory publishes independent market commentary to help readers understand capital flows, macro conditions, and the risks around an investment thesis. This page explains the standard we aim to apply to every issue and public research page.
Our approach
We start with the forces that move markets: monetary policy, liquidity, earnings, valuation, policy, geopolitics, and sector supply and demand. We then connect those forces to the companies, sectors, and public disclosures most relevant to a specific thesis. The goal is to explain the reasoning, catalysts, risks, and time horizon behind an idea, not to offer a one-line tip.
Facts, analysis, and uncertainty
Markets are uncertain. We distinguish reported facts from our analysis and, where a conclusion depends on limited or conflicting evidence, we say so. Historical returns, company performance, and public disclosures do not guarantee future results. A view may change when the underlying evidence changes.
Sources and dates
Time-sensitive market claims are intended to be read as snapshots. Long-form issues identify their publication date and cite the sources used for material claims, prioritizing primary sources such as company filings, earnings materials, government releases, and official public records where available. Secondary reporting may be used for context and is treated accordingly. Readers should check the source date and the latest primary material before acting on a time-sensitive claim.
Prices since our call
An article about one company shows how its stock has moved since we made the call. When we made the call before the article went out, the baseline is the opening price on the day we made it. Otherwise it is the closing price on the publication date, or on the last trading day before it when markets were closed. SPY is measured from the same open or close.
- Return: the latest price divided by the baseline, minus one. Price only, without dividends.
- SPY, same days: the same calculation for SPY.
- Edge: the stock's return minus SPY's, in percentage points.
Prices come from Yahoo Finance, adjusted for splits, and are refreshed by a daily sync. While a page is open the latest price updates every minute. Anyone can check a figure against the public prices for those dates.
Congressional-trade coverage
Our congressional-trade pages discuss publicly available STOCK Act disclosures and related public records. Disclosures can be delayed, reported in dollar ranges, and may relate to a spouse, managed account, or transaction that does not reflect a current view. A disclosure is a data point, not proof of material nonpublic information, and it is never treated as a recommendation to copy a trade.
Who produces the research
Issues, research pages, datasets, and tools are produced by Yield Theory Research, the editorial desk of Yield Theory. Each page shows its publication date and, where it has been revised, the date it was last reviewed. The About page describes the publication and how to contact it.
Free research and member issues
Free pages explain mechanisms, filings, and data: company financials from SEC filings, congressional disclosures as filed, AI capital spending in each issuer's own definition, calculators, and a glossary. Member issues apply the same sourcing standard to a specific investment question, then add the thesis, valuation assumptions, catalysts, risks, and what would change the view. A member issue's public page shows the question, its contents, and its sources; the analysis itself is available to members.
Funding and independence
Yield Theory is funded by reader memberships ($39 a month or $249 a year, billed through Whop). The site does not run display advertising. Whop operates a referral program that pays referrers a share of membership fees. Congressional-trade pages are not affiliated with any elected official.
Corrections
Report a suspected error to amrit@yieldtheory.app with the page URL and the source that contradicts it. When a material factual error is confirmed, the page is corrected and its reviewed date is updated. Figures that depend on a later filing or revised disclosure are updated against the new primary source rather than silently replaced.
What this is and is not
Yield Theory is market research and commentary for informational and educational purposes. It is not personalized investment, legal, tax, or financial advice; it does not take account of your objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and consider a qualified professional before making an investment decision.
Language models and answer engines
A machine-readable map of citable Yield Theory pages lives at /llms.txt. Quote the linked page, keep source dates and uncertainty labels, and do not invent unpublished member analysis or exact congressional trade sizes.
Reading the research
Start with the open introduction to our approach, then use the investing glossary for the concepts behind each thesis. Our congressional trades tracker, stock research, andcalculators are designed as supporting research tools, not as substitutes for diligence.