Super Micro Computer (SMCI) seasonality: returns by month

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has averaged +13.9% in May and −4.2% in October since 2007, the best and worst months. Every month's average is shown below with how often it rose, so a single big year can't hide.

Super Micro Computer returns by calendar month since 2007

SMCI return statistics by calendar month
MonthAverageMedianRose inBestWorst
January+10.7%+9.1%63% of 19 yrs+86.3% 2024−16.7% 2009
February+9.0%+5.3%53% of 19 yrs+63.5% 2024−20.7% 2018
March−1.0%−2.5%47% of 19 yrs+19.7% 2021−29.7% 2026
April−0.7%0.0%50% of 20 yrs+20.3% 2026−21.0% 2016
May+13.9%+3.2%55% of 20 yrs+112% 2023−15.3% 2019
June+0.4%+0.7%55% of 20 yrs+22.5% 2025−36.4% 2026
July+2.2%+3.6%55% of 20 yrs+33.9% 2022−21.8% 2012
August−3.2%−1.7%40% of 20 yrs+31.3% 2026−37.6% 2024
September+1.9%+0.3%55% of 20 yrs+20.1% 2014−17.0% 2017
October−4.2%+1.4%53% of 19 yrs+27.7% 2011−36.4% 2018
November+4.9%+12.1%68% of 19 yrs+29.7% 2022−34.9% 2025
December+3.9%+4.8%63% of 19 yrs+21.5% 2008−13.5% 2025

Month-end closes adjusted for splits and dividends, through the October 14, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance chart API, monthly close adjusted for splits and dividends. Excludes taxes, fees and inflation. Methodology

Past returns don't repeat. What does the price assume now?

These tables show what already happened. A buyer today gets the next ten years, and the price already reflects what the market expects. The reverse DCF calculator shows the growth today's price implies, so you can judge whether it is realistic.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the best month for Super Micro Computer?

May, with an average return of +13.9% since 2007. It rose in 55% of Mays (20 years).

What is the worst month for Super Micro Computer?

October, averaging −4.2% and rising in 53% of years.

Is it a good idea to time purchases by month?

Usually not. Each month has only about 20 observations here, one big year can swing an average, and the gaps between months are small next to a single year's range. Seasonality is a curiosity, not a trading signal.

How are the monthly returns calculated?

Each month's return runs from the previous month-end close to that month's close, using prices adjusted for splits and dividends. The current, unfinished month is left out.

The math is easy. The macro is hard.

Super Micro Computer shows the arithmetic. Members get the monthly call that decides which inputs matter, plus written breakpoints when the facts move. $39/month or $249/year.

$39/mo or $249/yr · cancel future renewals anytime · sources included