Free research
CoreWeave Capex 2026: Guidance, Spend, Debt and Customers
- Research desk
- Yield Theory Research
- Reviewed
- Evidence
- 10 external references · Method
CoreWeave expects to spend $35 billion to $39 billion on capex in 2026. Its revenue guidance for the same year is $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion. That's about $3 of building for every $1 of sales, the highest ratio among the large AI builders we track.
CoreWeave rents out NVIDIA GPUs in data centers it leases and equips. It's often called a "neocloud," a cloud company built for AI alone. Customers sign multi-year contracts for capacity, and CoreWeave borrows against those contracts to buy the chips. When it works, revenue doubles every year, which it has. The cost is debt that roughly tripled in a year and interest that now takes a quarter of every revenue dollar.
The short version
- 2026 capex guidance: $35 billion to $39 billion, raised twice this year from $30 billion to $35 billion in February.
- Spent so far: $16.2 billion in the first half, by CoreWeave's own measure. Its Q3 guidance of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion keeps it on track.
- Backlog: about $104 billion of contracted revenue at June 30, plus more than $25 billion added in early Q3.
- Customers: three customers made up 72% of Q2 revenue, down from one customer making up 71% a year earlier. Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Jane Street are named in its filings.
- Debt: $35.6 billion at June 30, 2026, up from $11.2 billion a year earlier. Net interest expense was $640 million in Q2, 25% of revenue.
Figures are from CoreWeave's filings and earnings calls through its Q2 2026 report on August 11, 2026. We update after each quarterly report.
CoreWeave capex guidance: every change
| Date | What CoreWeave said | For | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early 2025 | $20 billion to $23 billion | 2025 | As reported when it was cut, CNBC |
| November 10, 2025 | Cut to $12 billion to $14 billion after a third-party data center developer fell behind schedule | 2025 | CNBC |
| February 26, 2026 | 2025 actual: $14.9 billion. 2026 guidance: $30 billion to $35 billion | 2025 and 2026 | Q4 2025 call transcript, DCD |
| May 7, 2026 | $31 billion to $35 billion; low end raised on component pricing | 2026 | Q1 2026 call transcript |
| August 11, 2026 | $35 billion to $39 billion | 2026 | Q2 2026 call transcript |
The pattern matters. In 2025, CoreWeave's spending was limited by how fast others could build the buildings it rents, and it ended the year $5 billion to $8 billion below its original plan. In 2026, the guidance has gone only up, by $4 billion to $5 billion so far.
Two capex numbers: CoreWeave's vs the cash-flow statement
CoreWeave quotes "CapEx" on its calls, which counts equipment when it's received. The cash-flow statement counts cash paid for property and equipment, which can come months earlier or later.
| Period | CoreWeave's "CapEx" | Cash paid for property and equipment |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $14.9bn | $10.3bn |
| Q1 2026 | $6.8bn | $7.7bn |
| Q2 2026 | $9.4bn | $6.4bn |
| First half 2026 | $16.2bn | $14.1bn |
Cash figures are from the 2025 Form 10-K and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q. The guidance uses CoreWeave's own measure, so we use it in the worked example below.
Worked example: what the rest of 2026 requires
| Step | Low end | High end |
|---|---|---|
| 1. 2026 capex guidance | $35bn | $39bn |
| 2. First-half capex ($6.8bn + $9.4bn) | $16.2bn | $16.2bn |
| 3. Left for Q3 and Q4 (1 − 2) | $18.8bn | $22.8bn |
| 4. Q3 guidance | $11.5bn | $13.5bn |
| 5. Implied Q4 (3 − 4) | $5.3bn to $7.3bn | $9.3bn to $11.3bn |
Step 5 pairs each end of the full-year range with each end of the Q3 range. On guidance, Q3 would be CoreWeave's heaviest quarter yet. If CoreWeave spends near the top of its Q3 range and still keeps the full-year range, Q4 capex would fall. A big Q3 followed by another raise would tell you the 2026 range is still too low.
Capex per megawatt
Data centers are measured in megawatts (MW) of power, and "capex per MW" is a common shortcut for what AI capacity costs. CoreWeave had more than 850 MW of active power at the end of 2025 and expects more than 1.85 GW by the end of 2026, about 1 GW added.
Dividing $35 billion to $39 billion of 2026 capex by about 1,000 MW added gives roughly $35 million to $39 million per MW. Treat that as a rough ceiling, not a precise cost. Some 2026 capex is for capacity that goes live in 2027, and the power figures are "more than" targets. It does show where the money goes. A shell and power hookup cost a fraction of that per MW. Most of it is GPUs, servers and networking, which wear out in years, not decades.
Power status, from CoreWeave's releases:
| Date | Active power | Contracted power |
|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | More than 850 MW | About 3.1 GW |
| June 30, 2026 | 1.5 GW | About 3.7 GW |
| End of 2026, guidance | More than 1.85 GW |
The backlog, and who it's from
| Date | Revenue backlog |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | $66.8bn |
| March 31, 2026 | $99.4bn |
| June 30, 2026 | About $104bn, plus more than $25bn added in early Q3 |
Sources: CoreWeave's Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 releases.
Backlog is revenue customers have committed to but CoreWeave hasn't earned yet. At about $104 billion, it's roughly eight times CoreWeave's 2026 revenue guidance. The Q2 10-Q puts remaining performance obligations at $103.7 billion, with 41% expected within 24 months. Committed contracts made up 98% of revenue in the quarter.
The customer list has widened, but it's still short. From the Q2 10-Q:
- Three customers made up 36%, 26% and 10% of Q2 2026 revenue. A year earlier, one customer made up 71%. CoreWeave doesn't say which customer is which.
- Named significant customers include Microsoft and OpenAI. In September 2025, OpenAI committed to pay up to about $6.5 billion through May 2031 under one order. In March 2026, Meta committed up to about $21.0 billion, and in April 2026 Jane Street committed about $6.0 billion.
That's real progress: a year ago, one customer leaving would have taken most of CoreWeave's revenue with it. It's still a business that depends on a handful of AI labs and cloud giants keeping their plans.
How CoreWeave pays for it
| June 30, 2025 | June 30, 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Debt (carrying amount) | $11.2bn | $35.6bn |
| Property and equipment, net | $16.6bn | $46.7bn |
| Quarterly revenue | $1.21bn | $2.58bn |
| Quarterly net interest expense | $0.27bn | $0.64bn |
| Interest as a share of revenue | 22% | 25% |
| Quarterly operating income (loss) | $19m | −$49m |
| Quarterly net loss | −$290m | −$626m |
Source: CoreWeave Q2 2026 release and Forms 10-Q, via SEC XBRL.
In the first half of 2026, CoreWeave's operations brought in $3.7 billion of cash, and it spent $14.1 billion on property and equipment. It covered the gap mostly with new debt: $16.7 billion borrowed and $5.2 billion repaid in six months. In Q2 alone, it raised a $3.1 billion term loan, more than $10 billion of unsecured debt and convertible bonds, and $1 billion from Jane Street. In September 2026, it announced a further $3.0 billion of convertible notes due 2033.
On CoreWeave's preferred measure, the business looks healthy: adjusted EBITDA, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and some other costs, was $1.51 billion in Q2, a 59% margin. The gap between that and a $626 million net loss is mostly depreciation on all those GPUs and interest on the debt that paid for them. CoreWeave guides Q3 interest expense to $860 million to $940 million, against Q3 revenue guidance of $3.45 billion to $3.6 billion.
CoreWeave vs Oracle and the hyperscalers
| CoreWeave | Oracle | Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest capex guidance | $35bn–$39bn (2026) | $90bn–$95bn (FY ending May 2027) | $720bn–$745bn combined (2026) |
| Capex vs revenue | About 265%–315% of 2026 revenue guidance | Up to about 106% of FY27 revenue guidance | 22%–39% of trailing revenue |
| Free cash flow | Negative | Negative | $150bn combined, falling |
| Main funding | Debt secured on contracts | Debt, new shares, customer prepayments | Operating cash flow, some debt |
More detail: Oracle capex 2026 and 2027, the hyperscaler capex tracker and AI spending vs the dot-com bubble.
Our read
CoreWeave is the purest bet on AI compute demand in the stock market, and the most leveraged. The growth is real: revenue more than doubled in a year, backlog is about eight times this year's revenue, and the customer list now includes Meta and Jane Street alongside Microsoft and OpenAI.
But the model only works if three things hold at once. Customers have to keep paying through contracts that run five years or more. GPUs have to earn their cost back before newer chips make them cheaper to rent. And lenders have to keep refinancing at rates CoreWeave can afford. Interest already takes 25% of revenue, and the company lost money at the operating line in Q2. Of all the large AI builders, CoreWeave has the least room for any of those three to slip.
What we'd watch in the Q3 report, expected in November: capex against the $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion guidance, interest expense against adjusted operating income, and whether the share of revenue from the top three customers keeps falling. Another delay from a data center developer, like the one that pushed 2025 spending $5 billion to $8 billion below plan, would be the first sign of trouble.
Frequently asked questions
What is CoreWeave's capex guidance for 2026?
CoreWeave guides to $35 billion to $39 billion of capital expenditures in 2026, raised on August 11, 2026 from $31 billion to $35 billion. It started the year at $30 billion to $35 billion. It spent $16.2 billion in the first half on its own measure and guides Q3 capex to $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion. Its 2026 revenue guidance is $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion, so planned capex is about three times revenue.
How much did CoreWeave spend on capex in 2025?
$14.9 billion by CoreWeave's own measure, and $10.3 billion in cash paid for property and equipment. It had originally guided to $20 billion to $23 billion, then cut the range to $12 billion to $14 billion in November 2025 after a third-party data center developer fell behind schedule.
What is CoreWeave's capex per MW?
There's no official figure. Dividing 2026 capex guidance of $35 billion to $39 billion by the roughly 1 GW of active power CoreWeave expects to add during 2026 gives about $35 million to $39 million per MW. That overstates the true per-MW cost somewhat, because some 2026 spending is for capacity that goes live later. Most of the cost is GPUs, servers and networking, not buildings.
How much debt does CoreWeave have?
CoreWeave's debt had a carrying amount of $35.6 billion at June 30, 2026, up from $11.2 billion a year earlier. Net interest expense was $640 million in Q2 2026, and the company guides Q3 interest expense to $860 million to $940 million. In September 2026, it announced another $3.0 billion of convertible notes.
Who are CoreWeave's biggest customers?
CoreWeave's 10-Q shows three customers made up 36%, 26% and 10% of Q2 2026 revenue, without naming which is which. The filing names Microsoft and OpenAI as significant customers and describes commitments from Meta (up to about $21.0 billion), OpenAI (up to about $6.5 billion under a September 2025 order) and Jane Street (about $6.0 billion).
Limits of this data
- CoreWeave's "CapEx" and its cash-flow capex differ, sometimes by billions in a quarter.
- Some guidance figures come from earnings call transcripts, and the original 2025 range comes from news reports.
- The capex-per-MW figure is our rough calculation, not a CoreWeave disclosure.
- Backlog depends on CoreWeave delivering capacity on time. Contracts can be delayed or extended, as one was in 2025.
Go deeper with member research
CoreWeave's numbers show how far AI building now runs on borrowed money. Member reports follow that chain:
- Issue 05: NVIDIA Is Building the Credit Market for AI: how GPU capacity is becoming collateral for private credit, insurance balance sheets and securitized debt, the market CoreWeave borrows from.
- Comfort Systems and the scarce capacity behind AI construction: why construction and mechanical capacity, the bottleneck that cut CoreWeave's 2025 spending, has pricing power.
- Issue 02: The AI Capex Shock: where the next infrastructure dollar goes, who keeps the profit, and what could break first.
Companies in this research
Continue the research
Members-only research
Members are reading this
Aug 12, 2026
Issue 05: NVIDIA Is Building the Credit Market for AINVIDIA has found a way to turn knowledge of its own roadmap into a lower cost of capital for its customers. The result could move AI infrastructure from venture equity into private credit, insurance balance sheets and securitized debt.
Sep 9, 2026
Comfort Systems and the scarce capacity behind AI constructionA retrospective case study of whether Comfort Systems’ backlog and cash conversion looked investable on February 20, 2026, and what the later gains really rewarded.
The thesis, the numbers behind it, and what would break it. Full access is $39 a month.
Read the full research