NRG Energy (NRG) seasonality: returns by month

NRG Energy (NRG) has averaged +5.0% in April and −2.8% in September since 2003, the best and worst months. Every month's average is shown below with how often it rose, so a single big year can't hide.

NRG Energy returns by calendar month since 2003

NRG return statistics by calendar month
MonthAverageMedianRose inBestWorst
January+1.1%+0.1%52% of 23 yrs+35.2% 2017−11.0% 2008
February−0.8%0.0%48% of 23 yrs+17.6% 2026−19.1% 2009
March+2.8%+4.6%65% of 23 yrs+22.4% 2024−18.3% 2026
April+5.0%+5.2%74% of 23 yrs+24.1% 2020−9.5% 2017
May+4.3%+2.3%52% of 23 yrs+42.8% 2025−17.3% 2019
June+1.9%+3.2%57% of 23 yrs+25.4% 2021−17.1% 2022
July+1.6%+2.0%57% of 23 yrs+43.2% 2017−16.4% 2014
August+0.1%+1.2%52% of 23 yrs+13.7% 2024−17.7% 2026
September−2.8%+0.2%52% of 23 yrs+11.3% 2025−34.2% 2008
October+0.4%+1.0%55% of 22 yrs+16.9% 2022−18.4% 2009
November+2.3%+1.7%55% of 22 yrs+18.2% 2006−9.7% 2021
December+1.1%+1.5%59% of 22 yrs+19.6% 2021−25.0% 2022

Month-end closes adjusted for splits and dividends, through the October 14, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance chart API, monthly close adjusted for splits and dividends. Excludes taxes, fees and inflation. Methodology

Past returns don't repeat. What does the price assume now?

These tables show what already happened. A buyer today gets the next ten years, and the price already reflects what the market expects. The reverse DCF calculator shows the growth today's price implies, so you can judge whether it is realistic.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the best month for NRG Energy?

April, with an average return of +5.0% since 2003. It rose in 74% of Aprils (23 years).

What is the worst month for NRG Energy?

September, averaging −2.8% and rising in 52% of years.

Is it a good idea to time purchases by month?

Usually not. Each month has only about 23 observations here, one big year can swing an average, and the gaps between months are small next to a single year's range. Seasonality is a curiosity, not a trading signal.

How are the monthly returns calculated?

Each month's return runs from the previous month-end close to that month's close, using prices adjusted for splits and dividends. The current, unfinished month is left out.

The math is easy. The macro is hard.

NRG Energy shows the arithmetic. Members get the monthly call that decides which inputs matter, plus written breakpoints when the facts move. $39/month or $249/year.

$39/mo or $249/yr · cancel future renewals anytime · sources included