Mondelez International (MDLZ) seasonality: returns by month

Mondelez International (MDLZ) has averaged +3.7% in April and −0.7% in June since 2001, the best and worst months. Every month's average is shown below with how often it rose, so a single big year can't hide.

Mondelez International returns by calendar month since 2001

MDLZ return statistics by calendar month
MonthAverageMedianRose inBestWorst
January+0.2%0.0%48% of 25 yrs+15.6% 2019−18.2% 2003
February−0.4%−0.5%44% of 25 yrs+10.8% 2025−18.8% 2009
March+0.7%−0.6%40% of 25 yrs+11.7% 2013−5.6% 2026
April+3.7%+3.2%88% of 25 yrs+10.0% 2023−5.3% 2018
May+1.1%+1.1%56% of 25 yrs+11.6% 2009−9.3% 2004
June−0.7%−1.1%40% of 25 yrs+6.7% 2004−11.6% 2008
July+1.4%+1.8%58% of 26 yrs+11.9% 2008−14.6% 2003
August+0.7%+1.0%58% of 26 yrs+7.5% 2002−7.6% 2017
September−0.3%+0.1%50% of 26 yrs+8.5% 2007−10.8% 2022
October+0.1%−1.4%48% of 25 yrs+12.1% 2022−10.9% 2008
November+0.9%+0.2%56% of 25 yrs+11.2% 2014−8.2% 2016
December+1.2%+2.5%64% of 25 yrs+13.1% 2021−10.4% 2018

Month-end closes adjusted for splits and dividends, through the October 14, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance chart API, monthly close adjusted for splits and dividends. Excludes taxes, fees and inflation. Methodology

Past returns don't repeat. What does the price assume now?

These tables show what already happened. A buyer today gets the next ten years, and the price already reflects what the market expects. The reverse DCF calculator shows the growth today's price implies, so you can judge whether it is realistic.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the best month for Mondelez International?

April, with an average return of +3.7% since 2001. It rose in 88% of Aprils (25 years).

What is the worst month for Mondelez International?

June, averaging −0.7% and rising in 40% of years.

Is it a good idea to time purchases by month?

Usually not. Each month has only about 25 observations here, one big year can swing an average, and the gaps between months are small next to a single year's range. Seasonality is a curiosity, not a trading signal.

How are the monthly returns calculated?

Each month's return runs from the previous month-end close to that month's close, using prices adjusted for splits and dividends. The current, unfinished month is left out.

The math is easy. The macro is hard.

Mondelez International shows the arithmetic. Members get the monthly call that decides which inputs matter, plus written breakpoints when the facts move. $39/month or $249/year.

$39/mo or $249/yr · cancel future renewals anytime · sources included