Amgen (AMGN) seasonality: returns by month

Amgen (AMGN) has averaged +7.2% in July and −1.1% in September since 2000, the best and worst months. Every month's average is shown below with how often it rose, so a single big year can't hide.

Amgen returns by calendar month since 2000

AMGN return statistics by calendar month
MonthAverageMedianRose inBestWorst
January+1.3%+2.0%62% of 26 yrs+10.0% 2001−10.4% 2020
February+0.3%+0.6%52% of 27 yrs+14.3% 2026−12.2% 2024
March−0.9%+1.1%52% of 27 yrs+12.0% 2013−16.5% 2001
April−0.4%−1.2%37% of 27 yrs+18.0% 2020−11.4% 2002
May+0.7%−0.1%44% of 27 yrs+13.6% 2000−12.0% 2007
June+0.9%+1.6%56% of 27 yrs+10.9% 2017−12.1% 2002
July+7.2%+5.7%85% of 27 yrs+32.8% 2008−7.6% 2000
August+1.3%+1.0%59% of 27 yrs+16.7% 2000−13.7% 2015
September−1.1%−1.9%41% of 27 yrs+12.9% 2007−8.9% 2015
October+0.4%+0.5%50% of 26 yrs+19.9% 2022−17.0% 2000
November+2.4%+2.6%69% of 26 yrs+16.9% 2001−10.9% 2024
December−0.3%+0.4%54% of 26 yrs+13.1% 2021−15.9% 2007

Month-end closes adjusted for splits and dividends, through the October 14, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance chart API, monthly close adjusted for splits and dividends. Excludes taxes, fees and inflation. Methodology

Past returns don't repeat. What does the price assume now?

These tables show what already happened. A buyer today gets the next ten years, and the price already reflects what the market expects. The reverse DCF calculator shows the growth today's price implies, so you can judge whether it is realistic.

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Frequently asked questions

What is the best month for Amgen?

July, with an average return of +7.2% since 2000. It rose in 85% of Julys (27 years).

What is the worst month for Amgen?

September, averaging −1.1% and rising in 41% of years.

Is it a good idea to time purchases by month?

Usually not. Each month has only about 27 observations here, one big year can swing an average, and the gaps between months are small next to a single year's range. Seasonality is a curiosity, not a trading signal.

How are the monthly returns calculated?

Each month's return runs from the previous month-end close to that month's close, using prices adjusted for splits and dividends. The current, unfinished month is left out.

The math is easy. The macro is hard.

Amgen shows the arithmetic. Members get the monthly call that decides which inputs matter, plus written breakpoints when the facts move. $39/month or $249/year.

$39/mo or $249/yr · cancel future renewals anytime · sources included