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$1,000 invested in Moderna 5 years ago would be worth $494 today
MRNA prices in our data start in December 2018, so this buys at the close of December 2018. Valued at the 2026-10-02 close with dividends reinvested; excludes taxes and fees.
Moderna returns over 1 to 20 years
| $1,000 invested | MRNA today | Per year | Worst drop | S&P 500 today | S&P 500 per year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year ago Bought end of September 2025 | $7,356 | +629% | −21.7% | $1,168 | +16.7% |
| 3 years ago Bought end of September 2023 | $1,840 | +22.5% | −83.1% | $1,867 | +23.1% |
| 5 years ago Bought end of September 2021 | $494 | −13.2% | −93.7% | $1,917 | +13.9% |
| Since December 2018 Bought end of December 2018 | $12,443 | +38.4% | −93.7% | $3,451 | +17.3% |
Month-end closes adjusted for splits and dividends, valued at the October 2, 2026 close. Source: Yahoo Finance chart API, monthly close adjusted for splits and dividends. Excludes taxes, fees and inflation. Methodology
Past returns don't repeat. What does the price assume now?
The table answers what already happened. A buyer today gets the next ten years, not the last ten, and the share price already reflects what the market expects. That expectation is what you're really betting on.
Two quick checks: run MRNA through the reverse DCF calculator to see the growth today's price implies, then compare it with what the business actually earns. If the implied growth looks hard to reach, a great past return is no help.
Frequently asked questions
How much would $1,000 invested in Moderna 5 years ago be worth today?
About $494, a total return of −50.6%, bought at the close of September 2021 and valued at the 2026-10-02 close with dividends reinvested. The same $1,000 in an S&P 500 index fund (SPY) would be worth $1,917, so the stock trailed the index by $1,424.
What is Moderna's average annual return?
−13.2% a year compounded over that period. Since December 2018, the earliest month in our data, it is 38.4% a year.
What was the worst drop in MRNA along the way?
Measured on month-end prices, Moderna fell as much as 93.7% from a previous high during that period. Holding through drops like that is the hard part of earning the long-run return.
Do these numbers include dividends?
Yes. They use month-end prices adjusted for splits and dividends, which assumes every dividend was reinvested. They ignore taxes, trading costs and inflation.
Will Moderna keep returning this much?
Past returns don't tell you future returns. What matters now is the growth today's share price already assumes. A reverse DCF shows that number, so you can judge whether it is realistic.
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