FTSE 100 vs S&P 500: Returns by Year in Pounds, Dividends Included

Ten years ago, £10,000 put into the FTSE 100 with every dividend reinvested would now be worth £22,377. The same £10,000 in the S&P 500, measured in pounds, would be worth £40,719. Most people blame the weak pound for that gap. Over this decade, sterling actually finished slightly higher against the dollar, so currency explains none of it.

Watch it play outThe S&P 500 nearly doubled the FTSE 100's result, and the pound wasn't why
FTSE 100S&P 500, in pounds£22,377£40,719Currency effect−0.3 pts a year£18,342 gapSector mix +3.7 ptsFaster US firms +5.4 pts

Ten years ago: £10,000 in each index, dividends reinvested.

Today the FTSE 100 pot is worth £22,377. The S&P 500 pot, in pounds, is worth £40,719.

The usual excuse is the weak pound. But sterling ended the decade slightly higher against the dollar, so currency cost the S&P 500 a little.

The £18,342 gap came from what each index owns: almost no tech in London, and US companies that grew faster even in the same industries.

We rebuilt both indices from their official total return series, converted the American one into pounds at the Bank of England's month-end exchange rate, and then pulled the gap apart: how much came from currency, how much from dividends, how much from sector mix and how much from the companies themselves. Here is what a UK investor actually earned.

Make a guess
Over the last ten calendar years, in pounds with dividends included, in how many did the FTSE 100 beat the S&P 500?

Tap your guess

Spot on.Close, a little low.Close, a little high.Way off, too low.Way off, too high. It was 3 years.

Three: 2017, 2022 and 2025. Last year was the FTSE's best relative year in two decades, beating the S&P 500 by 16 points.

FTSE 100 wins3 years
S&P 500 wins7 years
Calendar-year total returns in pounds, 2016 to 2025.

The short version

  • The decade gap is huge. Over the past ten years the FTSE 100 returned 8.4% a year with dividends reinvested; the S&P 500 returned 15.1% a year in pounds. Over 20 years it was 6.8% against 13.1%.
  • Currency didn't cause it. Over ten years the pound moved from $1.30 to $1.33, which cost the S&P 500 0.3 points a year in sterling terms. Over 20 years, when the pound fell from $1.87, currency did add 1.9 points a year.
  • Most of the gap is what each index owns. Give the S&P 500 the FTSE 100's sector mix and its ten-year price return falls from 13.4% to 9.8% a year. That's still more than double the FTSE's 4.4%.
  • Dividends are most of the FTSE's return. They supplied 57% of the FTSE 100's ten-year gain and 72% of its 20-year gain. Without them, the index has barely moved since 1999.
  • The pound cushions crashes. In 2008 the S&P 500 lost 37% in dollars but only 12.7% for a UK investor, because sterling fell too.

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