Microsoft 2026 Capex Guidance: ~$170B vs Actual Spend
Microsoft guides to about $170 billion of calendar-2026 capital expenditure, cut from about $175 billion on its October 28, 2026 fiscal Q1 call because some third-party capacity deliveries slipped. Fiscal Q1 capex (July to September) was $45.2 billion, including $7.4 billion of finance leases, so $118.1 billion is spent and about $51.9 billion is left.
About $170B
As of Oct 28, 2026. Companywide capital expenditure, not a disclosed pure-AI total.
- About $170B
- As of Oct 28, 2026
- $45.2B
- Roughly three-quarters short-lived assets, primarily CPUs and GPUs; finance leases were $7.4B
- $118.1B
- 69%–69% of guidance
- Oct 30, 2026
- Refreshed after material guidance changes
How much has Microsoft actually spent on capex in 2026?
Microsoft reported $118.1B of capital expenditure in the first three calendar quarters of 2026, 69%–69% of its About $170B full-year guidance. Meeting the guidance implies about $51.9B–$51.9B in the fourth quarter. Each row keeps the company's own measure; quarters are calendar quarters, with the company's fiscal label alongside.
| Calendar quarter | Company period | Capex (USD billions) | Measure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026Ended Mar 31, 2026 | FY2026 Q3 | $31.9B | Capex including finance leases | Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings call |
| Q2 2026Ended Jun 30, 2026 | FY2026 Q4 | $41B | Capex including finance leases ($5.6B) | Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call |
| Q3 2026Ended Sep 30, 2026 | FY2027 Q1 | $45.2B | Capex including finance leases ($7.4B) | Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call |
How has Microsoft's 2026 capex guidance changed?
| As of | 2026 guidance (USD) | What changed | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 29, 2026 | About $190B | Prior calendar-2026 expectation, as restated on the fiscal Q4 call | Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call |
| Jul 29, 2026 | About $175B | Lower only because more leases are operating leases; planned spending unchanged | Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call |
| Oct 28, 2026 | About $170B | Lower because some third-party capacity deliveries shifted to January to June 2027 | Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call |
What does Microsoft's 2026 capex guidance cover?
Microsoft now expects approximately $170 billion of calendar-year 2026 capital expenditure. The plan has been lowered twice for different reasons. On July 29 it fell from about $190 billion to about $175 billion because more leases became operating leases, which capex excludes. On October 28 it fell to about $170 billion because some third-party capacity deliveries expected in fiscal Q1 were delayed; CFO Amy Hood said those deliveries shifted to the second half of the fiscal year, January to June 2027. Fiscal Q1 capex was $45.2 billion, below the more than $50 billion management had expected, and it expects fiscal Q2 capex above $50 billion. The number is a company capital-spending plan, not a disclosed pure-AI total.
What counts as capex for Microsoft?
Microsoft's reported capex includes additions obtained through finance leases as well as purchased property and equipment. That makes total capex different from cash paid for property and equipment in a quarter. Because operating leases are excluded, the July 2026 move of more data-center leases from finance to operating treatment lowered guidance to about $175 billion without changing planned spending. Effective FY2027, Microsoft extends the useful lives of data centers and offices from 15 to 25 years. The company also reports on a June fiscal year while the guidance is framed on a calendar-year basis, so fiscal-year comparisons require normalization.
- Short-lived assets such as GPUs and CPUs that can enter service and support revenue relatively quickly.
- Long-lived data-center sites and infrastructure intended to support monetization for 15 years or more.
- Storage, networking and replacement equipment needed to keep Azure and first-party products operating.
How should investors read Microsoft's spending?
Microsoft provides the clearest split between short-lived compute and long-lived infrastructure among the four companies in this tracker. That split matters because servers generally begin affecting depreciation and capacity sooner than a large campus. The central question is how quickly contracted cloud demand and product usage convert the new capacity into revenue relative to the depreciation and operating costs arriving behind it.
For the company's reported revenue, margins and filings, see the Microsoft (MSFT) stock research page. For the four-company total, see the 2026 hyperscaler capex tracker.
What should investors watch next?
- Whether fiscal Q2 capex (October to December) exceeds $50 billion, as guided, and whether the delayed third-party capacity arrives in the first half of 2027.
- Quarterly capex and the proportion allocated to short-lived compute versus long-lived sites.
- Finance-lease additions versus cash paid for property and equipment.
- Azure capacity constraints, backlog conversion and management's timing for bringing capacity online.
- Depreciation growth and cloud gross-margin pressure as recent investments enter service.
Why is Microsoft's capex hard to compare?
- The company does not disclose a standalone audited AI-capex figure.
- Calendar-year guidance does not align directly with Microsoft's June fiscal year.
- Finance-lease timing can make total capex volatile and different from cash investment in the same quarter.
From spending to returns
Capex tells you how much Microsoft is spending. The harder question is whether the returns justify it.
The free AI capex ROI scorecard tests demand, utilization, unit economics, margins and cash flow. The AI depreciation clock shows when this spending reaches earnings. Member research goes further, into the margin test arriving as the AI bill reaches earnings and where the next infrastructure dollar goes and what could break first.
Company sources
- Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings call
- Microsoft FY2027 Q1 earnings release (SEC exhibit 99.1)
- Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call
- Microsoft FY2026 Q3 earnings call
- Microsoft FY2026 Q2 earnings call
Guidance can change each quarter. Yield Theory preserves the company's accounting definition and does not relabel the entire amount as AI spending. The same figures are available as a free CSV and JSON AI capex dataset. Read the research methodology for our sourcing and correction standards.
Compare hyperscaler capex
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