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Risk/Reward & Breakeven Win-Rate Calculator

Translate entry, stop, target, and win rate into payoff and expectancy.
Reward-to-risk
2.00×
Breakeven win rate
33.33%
Expected R per trade
0.20×

Expectancy is only as credible as the evidence behind win rate, payoff distribution, costs, gaps, and execution.

A high win rate can still lose money when losses are much larger than gains, while a low win rate can work with favorable payoffs. This calculator converts entry, stop, and target prices into reward-to-risk, breakeven win rate, and expected R-multiple using an editable win-rate assumption.

Formula reviewed 2026-08-021 primary sourceMethodology and disclosures →

How this risk/reward & breakeven win-rate calculator works

The model measures dollars to the target relative to dollars to the stop. It solves the win rate at which average gains equal average losses and combines the entered win rate with the payoff ratio.

Formula

Expectancy in R = win rate × reward/risk − loss rate × 1

Real payoff distributions have more than two outcomes. Stops and targets can fill at different prices, and historical win rates can decay.

Primary specifications

Before you use the result

Assumptions

  • • Winning and losing outcomes equal the entered target and stop distances.
  • • The win rate is based on a relevant and sufficiently large sample.
  • • Spreads, slippage, gaps, fees, and partial exits are excluded.

Quick start

  1. 1. Enter a thesis-based entry, invalidation point, and target.
  2. 2. Use an evidence-backed win-rate range rather than intuition.
  3. 3. Reduce size for gap, liquidity, and model uncertainty.

Frequently asked questions

What does 2-to-1 reward-to-risk mean?

The planned gain is twice the planned loss before costs and execution differences.

What is a breakeven win rate?

It is the win percentage required for average gains to equal average losses at the selected payoff ratio.

Is positive expectancy guaranteed profit?

No. It depends on uncertain inputs and can still produce long losing sequences or change over time.

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The payoff is mathematical. The probabilities need research.

Members get source-linked catalysts, risks, and breakpoints for judging what can change the outcome distribution.

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