Macro
Yield Curve Inversion
An inversion turns the normal relationship upside down: investors accept lower yields on long-dated bonds than on short-dated ones. This typically happens when the market expects the central bank to cut rates in the future, often because it foresees an economic slowdown.
The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury is the most watched version. Every U.S. recession in recent decades has been preceded by an inversion, though the lag between the two can be a year or more.
An inversion is a warning sign rather than a timing tool. Savvy investors treat it as a prompt to reassess risk and revisit how their portfolio is positioned for a possible downturn.
Example
In 2022 the 2-year Treasury yield climbed above the 10-year, inverting the curve and stoking recession fears.
Yield Curve Inversion — FAQ
What is Yield Curve Inversion?
A yield curve inversion occurs when short-term bond yields rise above long-term yields, an unusual condition that has historically preceded U.S. recessions.
Can you give an example of Yield Curve Inversion?
In 2022 the 2-year Treasury yield climbed above the 10-year, inverting the curve and stoking recession fears.
Understanding creates conviction.
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